BETTING TIPS (XV): FIBA OLYMPIC QUALIFYING TOURNAMENT: SEMI-FINALS PICKS

These are my picks for the semi-finals. Sorry about the delay. Stay tuned to @TradingBaskets for more Live Betting Picks !

Nigeria - Russia. Russia -8 HT (1.90) Unibet Stake 3

(LIVE BETTING PICK) Nigeria - Russia. Russia -3,5 HT (1.90) Bet365 Stake 5 
(Bet placed at the beginning of the 2ndQ with 26-26 and FTS for Nigeria)

Nigeria - Russia. Russia -13,5 (1.95) Pinnacle Stake 3

Nigeria - Russia. Russia Total Points: Over 81 (1.90) Unibet Stake 3

After upsetting Greece yesterday in a stunning second half, Nigeria faces Russia. By no means, Russia will repeat Greek mistakes and they should smash Nigeria tonight. Too much for them playing back-to-back games vs Lithuania, Greece and Russia.


Coach Blatt will insist on deffensive intensity from the very beginning so I expect quite a comfortable win today. If Nigeria is overpowered before HT, we would have a high scoring game and I think Russia will get lots of easy baskets and we must place that bet.

Lithuania - Dominican Republic. Lithuania -4 HT (1.90) Unibet Stake 4

Lithuania - Dominican Republic. Lithuania -6,5 (1.96) Pinnacle Stake 5

Lithuania played quite a serious game yesterday against Puerto Rico. Neither Barea nor Arroyo were able to lead Puerto Rico´s offense. Lithuanian backcourt´s deffensive performance was really good and that was key  for getting through the semi-finals together with smart ball movement in offense.


Dominican Republic, on the other hand, got an incredible victory against FYR Macedonia after trailing by 20 points (37-17). Caribbean´s streetball came to life at the end of the second half with Francisco García´s stunning performance. They finally got a comfortable win against FYROM, which lacked of energy and had all its frontcourt in foul-troubles since the beginning of the third quarter. Only Bo McCalebb and Ilievski looked as good as last  year but it wasn´t enough against Dominican power.


I expect the same positive lithuanian attitude tonight. They are much more experienced and will cause many problems in deffense to the caribean backcourt. I think, as well, that Jonas Valanciunas will play a great game after his disappointing performance yesterday and will stop Martínez and Horford. 
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15,3 Units Won Today!

Russia and Lithuania qualified for London 2012 Olympics after beating Nigeria and Dominican Republic.



Russia won Nigeria (85-77) but couldn´t give us the FT Hcap Spread as they got relaxed too much in the second half and made a horrible deffensive performance.

Lithuania smashed Dominican Republic (109-83) since the beginning of the 2nd Quarter. Calipari decided to rest his key players in the second half for tomorrow´s big Olympic Qualifying Spot against Nigeria. 

Picks	39
Won	27		69,23%
Lost	11		28,21%
Void	1		2,56%
Stake	150,5
Profit	74,15
Yield	49,27%
Av. Odd	1,924615

BETTING TIPS (XIV): FIBA OLYMPIC QUALIFYING TOURNAMENT: QUARTER FINALS PICKS

Two Victories away from Glory! That´s the distance to London 2012 Olympic Games for the last eight contenders in Venezuela´s Qualifying Tournament. Welcome to the Knock Out Stage!

Russia vs Angola. Russia -10.5 HT (1.90) Unibet Stake 2

Russia vs Angola. Over 143.5 points (1.98) Pinnacle Stake 3

Russia vs Angola. Over 72 points 1st Half (1.90) Unibet Stake 2

Russia faces Angola expecting to win comfortably and trying to close the game before HT. I expect the best Russian defensive pressure stealing many balls and running the court since the very beginning of the game. Russian size and physical strength (though wihout injured Mozgov) will be key against low-sized Angola´s frontcourt. 

Which Angola performance we´ll see? The amazing one vs FYROM or the rubbish show against New Zealand? I think they´ll try to improve their long range shooting and play fast offensive transitions to get "easy" baskets. I think we´ll have a higher score than expected as Russia will break the game soon and Angola won´t be able to deffend properly.

Greece vs Nigeria. Greece -15 (1.97) Pinnacle Stake 4

Greece vs Nigeria. Greece -7.5 HT (1.86) Bet365 Stake 3

LIVEBETTING PICK Greece -3.5 HT (1.83) Bet365 Stake 5

As we predicted on Sunday, the Greek squad, led by  Head Coach Ilias Zouros, have come to Caracas with high confidence after their succesful preparation. Hellas offensive performances have been brilliant against Jordan and Puerto Rico. They are shooting the ball incredibly well from downtown, outrebounding every team and moving the ball to perfection. Olympiakos´Big Three: Vassilis Spanoulis, Papanikolau and Printezis, together with Bouroussis are On Fire. 

Nobody thought this young Nigerian NT would get through the Quarter Finals but Lithuania tanked yesterday and helped them to win and qualify to this KO round. Despite Ayo Bakare´s team improvement they didn´t deserve this big prize, but they got it anyway. Based on the inspiration of Aminu, Skin and Obasohan they will try to be in the game as long as possible. I don´t think that will happen as Greece will start strong and don´t allow them to score any easy hoops. Greece should smash them if they keep on playing as they have done these weeks.

FYR Macedonia vs Dominican Republic Over 152.5 points (1.95) Pinnacle Stake 4

This should be the closest game of the QF series. Both teams will try to make history getting through the semifinals. McCalebb will lead FYROM hopes, one more time, and he should control the tempo of the game. Neither Coronado nor Fortuna will be able to stop him so I expect a fast and open game with a lot of possessions and long-range shots. On the other hand, Dominican Republic´s frontcourt will dominate the paint with Horford & Martínez. Both centers should overpower Macedonian centers in the paint but they will struggle, as well, defending Pero Antic´s open shots. 

The offensive production of some players as Francisco García (who should be stepping up his numbers in this game) & Eulis Báez, in the Dominican side, and Vlado Ilievski and Stojanovski´s brothers, in the Balkan side, would make this game a high-scoring one if they are inspired beyond the arc. IMO, the line will be closer or over to 160 points.

Lithuania - Puerto Rico Under 169 points (2.00) Pinnacle Stake 4

IMO Quite A High Line for a Quarter Final´s K.O. Game.

Both Lithuania and Puerto Rico NT have performed very good offensive games in this Tournament. Specially both frontcourts have been quite dominant and effective, thanks to the excellent direction of PGS Sarunas Jasikevicius and JJ Barea. 

However, both defensive performances have been horrible allowing lots of open shots and easy baskets. Today, in a Do or Die Situation, I Do Think that we´ll see a much better Lithuanian deffensive play. They will be more aggressive and should physically overpower their opponents. It will be a very interesting game to test Jonas Valanciunas´ skills vs experienced Santiago and PJ Ramos while in the backcourt battle, Jasikevicius could slow down the tempo of the game to stop Arroyo&Barea frantic style. 

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+13,27 Units Won Today !

Things happened as we expected except Nigeria´s stunning win against Greece in the second half. I don´t know if I´ll be able to post something for tomorrow´s semifinals. I will try, I swear :) Stay Tuned to @TradingBaskets

Picks	33
Won	22		66,67%
Lost	10		30,30%
Void	1		3,03%
Stake	127,5
Profit	58,85
Yield	46,16%
Av. Odd	1,925758

BETTING TIPS (IX) 2012 FIBA OLYMPIC QUALIFYING TOURNAMENT: DAY ONE, SIX PICKS

For the first day of the tournament I won´t write too much as you can find all the important info on these previous posts. If I find more interesting picks tomorrow I will write about them on twitter. So these are my tips:

Russia vs South Korea. Russia -25.5 (1.90) Unibet Stake 2.5

(Value Bet till -27)

Russia vs South Korea. Russia -13.5 HT (1.90) Unibet Stake 2.5

(Value Bet till -14.5)

First game of the tournament in Caracas. The strongest team against the weakest team. Russia should trash Korea. It´s the best game for David Blatt´s roster to begin and get used to the "Poliedro´s" conditions.

Greece vs Jordan. Greece -15.5 HT (1.90) Unibet Stake 2

(Value Bet till -16)

Again a lot of differences between these two teams. I have chosen the HT handicap because the greeks have played quite aggresively in the first two quarters of every preparatory games. The FT handicap is a bit dangerous to me, as Greece could start thinking in their game against Puerto Rico and relax a little bit.

Angola vs FYR Of Macedonia. FYR Of Macedonia -7,5 (1.94) Pinnacle Stake 1.5

(Value Bet till -8.5)

Angola vs FYR Of Macedonia. Under 148 points (1.94) Pinnacle Stake 1.5

(Value bet Under 147 points)

It should be the most difficult game of the day. Angola will fight and try to slow the tempo to stop Bo McCalebb´s production. FYROM should take advantage of their big men in the paint and if Angola is not inspired beyond the arc they will struggle in offense.

Venezuela vs Nigeria. Venezuela -10 (1.97) Pinnacle Stake 3
(Value Bet till -12)


Venezuela could feel the pressure in the first game but I think they are quite ready for this clash. They will give their best to get their first win and they should win comfortably if Vásquez imposes his rhythm and they control the boards.

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+0,3 Units after a disappointing day. 

Nobody expected Angola´s massive performance in the first half. Macedonia woke up too late and they couldn´t even win the game. Venezuela, on the other hand, didn´t play as they had been doing the last weeks. Neither Romero nor Torres were able to help Vásquez in the offensive field. Missing many open shots and not controlling the tempo...

Picks	16
Won	11		68,75%
Lost	5		31,25%
Void	0		0,00%
Stake	50,5
Profit	22,6
Yield	44,75%
Av. Odd	1,91875

2012 FIBA OLYMPIC QUALIFYING TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS: GROUPS A & B

GROUP A

GREECE  

The Greek squad , led by  Head Coach Ilias Zouros, arrives in Venezuela with high confidence after their preparatory games. Hellas NT is practically the same that played so well last year in Lithuania Eurobasket 2011. The biggest changes are the return of Vassilis Spanoulis and the absence of Kostas Koufos. With Spanoulis´ comeback, the Greek Backcourt is probably the strongest of the tournament:  PGS Zisis and Calathes together with such an emerging talent as Papanikolau and the danger of Kostas Vasileiadis beyond the arc.

Zouros will have lots of quality options at the PF: Fotsis-Kaimakoglou (who probably play many minutes at small forward) and Printezis, who has been onfire in the last Friendly Tournament played in Brazil this week. 

Maybe the ´weakest´ position for the Greeks will be in the frontcourt. Bouroussis and Mavroeidis are the only Big C´s with the absences of Koufos, Schortsianitis and Vougiukas.

Hellas is one of the main favourites and if their offense keeps on working as they have done in these previous weeks, they will get one of the Olympic spots.

JORDAN

Last year in Asiabasket 2011, Jordan managed to reach the final and get the silver medal. Courageous and commited team, they upsetted the Philippines in the semifinals working so hard on deffense.

However, the middle-east team will play this summer without its biggest star PG Rasheem Wright. The American-Jordanian won´t be available for Head Coach Tab Baldwin and the offense will just pend on both experienced PG Osama Daghles and C Zaid Abbas.

Jordanian style has always been quite slow with long possessions and they will truly miss Wright´s outstanding skills as they are the weakest team in this Tournament.

PUERTO RICO

Puerto Rico NT will have a big test in this Caracas´Olympic Qualifying Tournament after its last week home defeat against Dominican Republic in Centrobasket 2012 (played in San Juan).

HC Flor Meléndez wants a ticket to London for his team, relying on their distinctive and attractive style of play. Run & Gun offense commanded by talented and electric PGS Juan José Barea and Carlos Arroyo.  Shooting Guards Huertas and Rosario will open the court to their big men and will be quite dangerous from downtown.

The offensive talents of Nathan Peavy  and Renaldo Balkman´s deffensive toughness are the main weapons in the PF.  In the paint, the experience of Daniel Santiago together with the quality of Ricky Sánchez make  Puerto Rico such a solid team if they are inspired and focused.

GROUP B

LITHUANIA

After an irregular and strange preparation, Lithuania NT arrives in Venezuela with a lot of questions and doubts around the team. HC Kestutis Kemzura has been trying with both successful WC 2010 and disappointing Euro2011 styles of play. The key problem for the Baltic Team is the lack of outsdating long range shooters (Seibutis, Gecevicius and Jasaitis in the back court and Lavrinovic´s brothers  and Motiejunas are sidelined).

Despite all absences, Lithuania should be among the favourites to qualify for London2012. With Kleiza,  Jasikevicius and Valanciunas as the key offensive references they´ll need more production from the bench. If they find their rhythm in offensive transitions and improve their defensive level they should have many options to be in the semifinals for the sixth consecutive time.

NIGERIA

Building a solid future for Nigeria NT. That´s HC Ayo Bakare´s goal for this tournament with the absence of his most important players (Udoka, Eze, Ere, Umeh). 

The roster that arrives in Caracas has lots of new faces regarding last year´s in Madagascar Afrobasket 2011. PG Tony Skin, SGS Obasohan and Oguchi will help NBA SF Al farouq Aminu in the offensive backcourt. The strength and power of Aminu, Diogu and Oyedeji will be their main weapons in the paint.

They were smashed by Brazil and Greece, last week, so they will try to upset Venezuela but I don’t´give them any options.

VENEZUELA

In my opinion, the hosts are going to be serious contenders in this competition and everybody in Caracas expects them to claim one of the Olympic berths. It won´t be easy at all, but Venezuela NT has shewn great commitment in the last two years and they are ready for this contest.

NBA PG Greivis Vásquez is the true offensive leader of the team. Together with him, SGS Cox, Cubillán, Sucre and Zamora complete a dangerous backcourt. In the paint, the experience and talent of Héctor "Pepito" Romero and Óscar Torres will be helped by the toughness of Gregory Echenique and Windi Graterol.

“Venezuelan basketball has advanced more in this year than in the last 20,” Greivis Vásquez said. They play as a team with passion and smartness, so give full credit to HC Eric Musselman.

If they win their first two games - and that’s a big if - the self-belief would grow and the fans would have the opportunity to give the team an extra push in the clashes to follow. It won´t be easy at all, but more than anything at this moment, perspective is needed for Venezuelan basketball.

COMPETITION FORMAT

The Olympic Qualifying Tournament basketball competition for men consists of a Preliminary Round, Quarter-Finals, Semi-Finals and Finals. 

Preliminary Round 


The 12 participating teams will be divided into four groups (A,B,C & D) of three (3) teams each. Each team will play with the other two (2) teams in its own group. The two (2) highest ranked teams in each group will qualify for the Quarter-Finals. The 3th ranked teams in each group will be eliminated and will not play anymore.


Quarter-Finals 


The eight (8) teams qualified from the Preliminary Round will play the direct elimination as follows: 


A1 vs. B2 
B1 vs. A2  
C1 vs. D2  
D1 vs. C2  


The winners of the above games will qualify for the Semi-Finals. The losers will be eliminated and will not play anymore. 


Semi-Finals 


The winners of the Quarter-Finals will play for places 1-4.


The winners of these games will play in the Gold Medal Game and will qualify to London 2012 Olympic Games.


The losers will play in the Bronze Medal Game. The winner of this game will get the third and last spot to London 2012 Olympics.

Betting Tips (VIII) : Brazil vs Greece and New Zealand vs Nigeria

Brazil and Greece will clash tonight in Sao Carlos to determine the winner of Torneio Eletrobras. Both NTs have won comfortably their two games against two weak rivals as New Zealand and Nigeria. This game must be a valuable test for both head coaches.

Hellas NT, will start playing the Olympic Qualifying Tournament in Venezuela  on Monday. They will be fighting for one of the last three tickets to London.  The Greek squad, led by HC Zouros, has completed a perfect preparation. After beating  Lithuania and FYROM in the Baltic country they have displayed all their offensive power in Brazil trashing New Zealand and Nigeria.

The Greek block is practically the same that made a great performance at Lithuania 2011 Eurobasket, without Dimitris Diamantidis. Despite the absence of the great PG, the Greeks played as a solid team based on serious defensive commitment and exploiting the quality of experienced players as Fotsis, Zisis and Bouroussis.

Tonight, Greece will face a Brazilian NT team that still has four weeks to work hard before the Olympics. Head Coach Ruben Magnano  has started working this week with the final block that will go to London. Despite not playing yet with Leandrinho Barbosa and Tiago Splitter, they have made  very interesting offensive performances.  

Magnano´s teams are always built from deffense to offense.  The power of Anderson Varejao and Nene in the paint should be the best of Brazilian weapons to stop Bouroussis and Vougioukas. In the backcourt we´ll see a nice battle between Huertas and Zisis and youngsters Benite and Papanikolau.  

I expect a low scoring game tonight with both teams working hard on deffense and playing long possessions. Zouros  will try to hide some of his best offensive plays for OQT in Venezuela. IMO the line is too high.

Brazil vs Greece. Under 150.5 points (1.97) Pinnacle Stake 2.5

(Value Bet till -149 points)

New Zealand and Nigeria play today their last friendly game before flying to Venezuela. Both teams have struggled a lot in this Torneio Eletrobras in Brazil. 

Nigeria isn´t playing with key offensive players as Ime Udoka and Michael Umeh. Together with these major absences, Derrick Obasohan has been sidelined in this Brazilian tournament. So, only Diogu is the only reliable attacking option for Coach Ayo Bakare.

On the other hand, The Tall Blacks, are missing as well Kirk Penney and Tom Abercrombie. Without these two key ballers, New Zealand NT struggle in offense as they can´t replace them.

I think we´ll see quite a physical and ugly game with both teams battling for an important win before OQT.

New Zealand vs Nigeria. Under 154 points (1.98) Pinnacle Stake 2.5
(Value Bet till -152 points)

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Brazil 78-71 Greece (Struggling at the end with a high scoring last Q)
New Zealand 66-74 Nigeria (Quite low scoring tempo and easy pick except last Q)


+4,875 units

Picks	10
Won	8		80,00%
Lost	2		20,00%
Void	0		0,00%
Stake	37,5
Profit	22,3
Yield	59,47%
Av. Odd	1,914

Basketball Betting Tips: Lithuania vs Greece

Here we go again with another basketball pick related to International Friendly Games. Our main goal is developing valuable baskeball tips, apart from keeping you updated about all the news related to FIBA Basketball.

Lithuania and Greece will clash this afternoon in the baltic country, to close up a busy basketball weekend that started on Thursday in Kaunas, to get ready for the FIBA Olympic 2012 Qualifying Tournament.


Both teams played yesterday. FYR of Macedonia defeated Lithuania (74-78) with a late rally without Bo McCalebb, Pero Antic, Todor Gecevski and Vlado Ilievski. The hosts really struggled beyond the arc and couldn´t handle V. Stojanovski & Samardziski on deffense. Jasikevicius, Jankunas and Javtokas didn´t play for Lithuania. Kaukenas, Lavrinovic and Pocius are still playing with their teams so they will not be able till next week.


Greece, on the other hand, won Russia (66-63) in a very close game. Both coaches proposed a low-tempo game and deffense was quite important. The russians, as it happened on Thursday, turned the ball too many times and missed too many open shots. They have to improve a lot in offensive field. Yesterday´s victory should boost Greece as they played without Spanoulis, Zisis, Fotsis and Bourousis.


Today, Zisis, Fotsis and Bourousis wont be available again for Ilias Zouros as they will be playing the fifth game of the Italian Lega Final Series. Spanoulis will be a game time decision so big names out for Hellas that will focus again on deffense and rely on Papanikolau, Kaimakoglou and Printezis to attack the lithuanian hoop.


I expect a low scoring game with both teams trying to play long possessions. Too many important players aren´t available so now the big issues are working hard on deffensive and physical aspects before travelling to Venezuela for the Olympic Qualifiers (the first week of July).

Lithuania - Greece Under 144.5 points (1.83) Stake 3 Bet365 
(Value Bet till -143 points)


-3 Units


Greece defeated Lithuania 82-70. The second quarter was absolutely crazy (36-17 for the greeks) and broke the slow rhythm of the game.