BETTING TIPS (XXVIII): LONDON 2012 OLYMPIC BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT (DAY ONE)

These are my first picks for London 2012 Olympic Basketball Tournament. Stay Tuned !

Spain - China. Spain Total Points Over 85,5 (1,90) Unibet. Stake 2,5

Spain - China. Spain -19,5 (1,90) Unibet. Stake 2,5

Spain should win quite comfortably this game. It´s true that the first match in these competitions is weird and difficult but Scariolo´s squad should beat quite easily this chinese team. China is still missing Yao Ming and they just rely on their starting five (Wei-Yue-Wang-Yi Jianlian-Zhizhi Wang). IMO we´ll watch a fast game with Spain getting many easy baskets in transition.

Argentina - Lithuania. Under 164 points (1,94) Pinnacle. Stake 2,5

First game of the tournament for both teams that will clash after their big game on Turkey´s Worldcup semifinals. It´s true that none of them had shown good deffensive attitude in their roads to London. However I think it will be quite different in this game and I expect a lower scoring line than this. Lithuanian backcourt had been struggling beyond the arc and they will have to beat tough customers such as Ginobili, Delfino or Nocioni. In the paint it will be quite interesting to watch youngster Valanciunas facing lots of veterans as Scola, Gutiérrez or Leiva. We should watch a very physical game and the line should be around 158.

STAT BETS (Day One)

Nigeria - Tunisia: Al-Farouq Aminu Over 13,5 Points (1,85) Unibet. Stake 1

The young NBA SF-PF was one of the leaders of Nigeria NT, together with Ike Diogu, in Venezuela´s Olympic Qualifier. If he´s inspired he shouldn´t have any problems with tunisian deffenders. IMO the line should be around 16-17 points.

Brazil - Australia: Patty Mills Over 13,5 Points (1,85) Unibet. Stake 1

Mills have really felt the ball in Australia´s prep games. With excellent pct beyond the arc he will face Huertas and I think he´ll beat this scoring line.

Russia- Great Britain: Shved Over 10 Points (1,85) Unibet. Stake 1,5

Alexey Shved should destroy british PGS with his intense deffensive pressure and stealing skills. Probably without Mike Lenzley, either Nate Reinking or Andrew Lawrence won´t be able to stop him in open field so I expect many transitions and easy lay ups for the russian CG.

Spain - China: Marc Gasol        Under 14 points (1,85) Unibet. Stake 2

Spain - China: Juan C. Navarro Under 16 points (1,85) Unibet Stake 1


Marc Gasol has been sitting out with a shoulder injury for the last 10 days so if he finally plays against China he will see limited action. I think it´s the most valuable stat bet of the day.


Juan Carlos Navarro has been playing few minutes because of nagging foot and back injuries. I don´t think Coach Scariolo will risk at all so he won´t be playing more than 15-18 minutes.
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+0,925 Units Won.
Bitersweet day. The stat bets outcome was brilliant, though Aminu played such a bad game. Spain didn´t deffend well and a bad third quarter made impossible to win the spread bet against China. Lithuania was a total disaster and was trashed by Argentina since the very beginning. Frantic pace and crazy score.

Picks	77
Won	53		68,83%
Lost	23		29,87%
Void	1		1,30%
Stake	267
Profit	120,4
Yield	45,09%
Av. Odd	1,928052

BETTING TIPS (XVIII): FRANCE VS BELARUS & SPAIN VS TUNISIA

These are my picks for tonight´s friendly games. I have to hurry and I won´t be able to explain them as I´d like...

France - Belarus. France -22.5 points (2.00) Pinnacle. Stake 3

After their disappointing loss against Belgium yesterday, where they were outrebounded, France must step up tonight. Parker will see more action and french frontcourt should overpower their rivals. They will face Belarus NT, which have arrived in France without their top Cs (Veremeenko & Parakhouski). They will rely in long-range shots of their backcourt players, specially, PGs Kudryavtsev and naturalized american CG Dante Stiggers.

Andrei Krivonos named this roster for this trip to France: Nikolai Alekseev, George Kondrusiewicz, Korshuk Denis, Alexander Kudryavtsev, Lashkevich Alexey, Nikita Meshcheryakov, Meshcheryakov Yegor, Alexander Pugstovar, Dante Stiggers, Alex Trostinetsky, Pavel Ulyanka & Charikov Sergey. 

Spain - Tunisia. Spain -28.5 points (1.85) Unibet. Stake 3

Spain will be hosting tonight Afrobasket 2011 Champions in Salamanca. After their two first games vs Great Britain and France, Scariolo´s squad will face an easier test against Tunisia. The north-african roster will not count with Salah Mejrim, its best center and player. Without his rebounding and intimidation skills in the paint, Tunisia will have poor weapons to stop both Gasol´s brothers and Ibaka. IMO Spain should smash Tunisia and the spread should be between 35-40 points.
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France 84-64 Belarus & Spain 95-56 Tunisia -0,45 Units

Picks	46
Won	31		67,39%
Lost	14		30,43%
Void	1		2,17%
Stake	172,5
Profit	76,425
Yield	44,30%
Av. Odd	1,928696

BETTING TIPS (XII): FIBA OLYMPIC QUALIFYING TOURNAMENT: DAY THREE (LIVE PICKS)

As I told you this morning, I would be placing live bets in twitter during the day. After Angola´s defeat against New Zealand, I have decided to place a couple of bets in Russia vs Dominican Republic game, a few minutes before the tip-off. 


As the winner of this game will face Angola in the QFs, I think that Russia will overpower the messy caribbean team. So I expect a fast game with a lot of transitions and a comfortable win for David Blatt´s squad.
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Russia 84-69 Dominican Republic  +4,7 Units


Russia didn´t play at their best but it was enough to beat Dominican Republic comfortably. Mozgov hurt his ankle at the beginning of the game and it could be a serious injury for Big russian C. However Russian problems came at the backcourt as they need to improve their long-range shooting percentage.



Russia vs Dominican Republic. Over 147 points (1.94) Pinnacle Stake 5

Russia vs Dominican Republic. Russia -15 (1.86) Bet365 Stake 4

Picks	25
Won	16		64,00%
Lost	8		32,00%
Void	1		4,00%
Stake	100,5
Profit	45,58
Yield	45,35%
Av. Odd	1,9264

BETTING TIPS (IX) 2012 FIBA OLYMPIC QUALIFYING TOURNAMENT: DAY ONE, SIX PICKS

For the first day of the tournament I won´t write too much as you can find all the important info on these previous posts. If I find more interesting picks tomorrow I will write about them on twitter. So these are my tips:

Russia vs South Korea. Russia -25.5 (1.90) Unibet Stake 2.5

(Value Bet till -27)

Russia vs South Korea. Russia -13.5 HT (1.90) Unibet Stake 2.5

(Value Bet till -14.5)

First game of the tournament in Caracas. The strongest team against the weakest team. Russia should trash Korea. It´s the best game for David Blatt´s roster to begin and get used to the "Poliedro´s" conditions.

Greece vs Jordan. Greece -15.5 HT (1.90) Unibet Stake 2

(Value Bet till -16)

Again a lot of differences between these two teams. I have chosen the HT handicap because the greeks have played quite aggresively in the first two quarters of every preparatory games. The FT handicap is a bit dangerous to me, as Greece could start thinking in their game against Puerto Rico and relax a little bit.

Angola vs FYR Of Macedonia. FYR Of Macedonia -7,5 (1.94) Pinnacle Stake 1.5

(Value Bet till -8.5)

Angola vs FYR Of Macedonia. Under 148 points (1.94) Pinnacle Stake 1.5

(Value bet Under 147 points)

It should be the most difficult game of the day. Angola will fight and try to slow the tempo to stop Bo McCalebb´s production. FYROM should take advantage of their big men in the paint and if Angola is not inspired beyond the arc they will struggle in offense.

Venezuela vs Nigeria. Venezuela -10 (1.97) Pinnacle Stake 3
(Value Bet till -12)


Venezuela could feel the pressure in the first game but I think they are quite ready for this clash. They will give their best to get their first win and they should win comfortably if Vásquez imposes his rhythm and they control the boards.

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+0,3 Units after a disappointing day. 

Nobody expected Angola´s massive performance in the first half. Macedonia woke up too late and they couldn´t even win the game. Venezuela, on the other hand, didn´t play as they had been doing the last weeks. Neither Romero nor Torres were able to help Vásquez in the offensive field. Missing many open shots and not controlling the tempo...

Picks	16
Won	11		68,75%
Lost	5		31,25%
Void	0		0,00%
Stake	50,5
Profit	22,6
Yield	44,75%
Av. Odd	1,91875

Betting Tips (VIII) : Brazil vs Greece and New Zealand vs Nigeria

Brazil and Greece will clash tonight in Sao Carlos to determine the winner of Torneio Eletrobras. Both NTs have won comfortably their two games against two weak rivals as New Zealand and Nigeria. This game must be a valuable test for both head coaches.

Hellas NT, will start playing the Olympic Qualifying Tournament in Venezuela  on Monday. They will be fighting for one of the last three tickets to London.  The Greek squad, led by HC Zouros, has completed a perfect preparation. After beating  Lithuania and FYROM in the Baltic country they have displayed all their offensive power in Brazil trashing New Zealand and Nigeria.

The Greek block is practically the same that made a great performance at Lithuania 2011 Eurobasket, without Dimitris Diamantidis. Despite the absence of the great PG, the Greeks played as a solid team based on serious defensive commitment and exploiting the quality of experienced players as Fotsis, Zisis and Bouroussis.

Tonight, Greece will face a Brazilian NT team that still has four weeks to work hard before the Olympics. Head Coach Ruben Magnano  has started working this week with the final block that will go to London. Despite not playing yet with Leandrinho Barbosa and Tiago Splitter, they have made  very interesting offensive performances.  

Magnano´s teams are always built from deffense to offense.  The power of Anderson Varejao and Nene in the paint should be the best of Brazilian weapons to stop Bouroussis and Vougioukas. In the backcourt we´ll see a nice battle between Huertas and Zisis and youngsters Benite and Papanikolau.  

I expect a low scoring game tonight with both teams working hard on deffense and playing long possessions. Zouros  will try to hide some of his best offensive plays for OQT in Venezuela. IMO the line is too high.

Brazil vs Greece. Under 150.5 points (1.97) Pinnacle Stake 2.5

(Value Bet till -149 points)

New Zealand and Nigeria play today their last friendly game before flying to Venezuela. Both teams have struggled a lot in this Torneio Eletrobras in Brazil. 

Nigeria isn´t playing with key offensive players as Ime Udoka and Michael Umeh. Together with these major absences, Derrick Obasohan has been sidelined in this Brazilian tournament. So, only Diogu is the only reliable attacking option for Coach Ayo Bakare.

On the other hand, The Tall Blacks, are missing as well Kirk Penney and Tom Abercrombie. Without these two key ballers, New Zealand NT struggle in offense as they can´t replace them.

I think we´ll see quite a physical and ugly game with both teams battling for an important win before OQT.

New Zealand vs Nigeria. Under 154 points (1.98) Pinnacle Stake 2.5
(Value Bet till -152 points)

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Brazil 78-71 Greece (Struggling at the end with a high scoring last Q)
New Zealand 66-74 Nigeria (Quite low scoring tempo and easy pick except last Q)


+4,875 units

Picks	10
Won	8		80,00%
Lost	2		20,00%
Void	0		0,00%
Stake	37,5
Profit	22,3
Yield	59,47%
Av. Odd	1,914

Betting Tips (III) 2012 South American Basketball Championship: Venezuela - Chile

2012 South American Championship for Men, starts today in Argentina. This tournament will last from Monday to Friday. Both Argentina and Brazil NTs will use this tournament to start their preparation for the Olympics. However, Venezuela, the third title contender, will compete harder as they will be playing Olympic Qualifiers, at home, in a couple of weeks


Eric Musselman, Venezuela´s NT Head Coach, together with Brad Greenberg have named quite a powerful roster for this championship: Greivis Vásquez, Gregory Vargas, David Cubillan, José Vargas, Jhornan Zamora, Francisco Centeno, Héctor "Pepito" Romero,  Axiers Sucre, Windi Graterol, Gregory Echenique, Miguel Marriaga y José Bravo. 


Regarding that Óscar Torres and John Cox are recovering from some injuries, this is quite a competitive list. In previous friendly games, Venezuela managed to defeat Brazil and Argentina last week. The ´vinotinto´ team wants to play as good as they did at FIBA America´s Championship last year. Their goal is to qualify to the Olympics so they will give their best. Today, PG David Cubillan may not play as he got injured on friday against Brazil, but it will be a game-time decision.


Chilean Basketball, on the other hand, is still in the middle of nowhere. For this Championship they appointed Edgardo Vecchio as NT head coach, one month ago. This decision was quite controversial and we´ll see what happens with the attitude of some players and the inner future of the  team. Chile is coming to Argentina with an undersized roster that will struggle a lot.


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Venezuela 86-61 Chile (45-27 HT) +5.1 Units


Venezuela -22.5 (Unibet) 1.85 Stake 6 
 (Value spread till -25)


It could also be so interesting for livebettting Venezuela´s 1stQ and HT Spreads.

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