BETTING TIPS (XXVII) INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY GAMES: LITHUANIA - ICELAND

Lithuania will play its last friendly game before the Olympics in front of its passionate fans in Vilnius. After being defeated by Russia on Sunday (101-79), Kemzura´s squad will host Iceland, such a weak opponent. 

I think we´ll see quite a comfortable win for the baltic side before heading to London. Lithuania should trash Iceland and get ready to face Argentina next Sunday.

Iceland's last EuroBasket Division B campaign was in 2009. Flash forward three years and the stakes are now considerably higher for Iceland. Starting 14 August, the national team is not embarking on a campaign to earn promotion, but to secure a place in the 24-team EuroBasket 2013. 

The Division A and B system is now defunct and everyone is given a fair chance of earning a ticket to the big stage. Such a great prize for Iceland NT that will have, once again, Jon Stefansson as the go-to player, just helped by Pavel Ermolinskij and the youngster Haukur Palsson.

Lithuania - Iceland. Lithuania -26,5 (1,83) Bet365. Stake 5

Lithuania - Iceland. Lithuania -14,5 HT (1,83) Bet365. Stake 3 (LIVEBETTING)

Lithuania - Iceland. Lithuania Over 94,5 points (1,86) Bet365. Stake 3 (LIVEBETTING)
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Lithuania 101-51 Iceland (47-31 HT) +9,22 Units


Lithuania easily cruise past Iceland since the very beginning. However they need to step up their offense and free throws percentage.

Picks	67
Won	47		70,15%
Lost	19		28,36%
Void	1		1,49%
Stake	245
Profit	117,625
Yield	48,01%
Av. Odd	1,93194

BETTING TIPS (XIX) : USA - BRAZIL

Tonight USA and Brazil will clash in Washington. This game will be the second and the last one in USA for Coach Krzyzewski´s squad. Regarding last Brazilian preparatory games I expect a physical game quite similar to the game they played in Turkey, two years ago. IMO the spread is too high (should be between 20-25 points), comparing both rosters and the experience of brazilian players. Paul, James and Bryant should step up in offense while USA´s frontcourt will struggle against powerful NBA Brazilian centers.

USA - Brazil. Brazil +31.5 (1,96) Pinnacle. Stake 5

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USA 80-69 Brazil +4,8 Units

BETTING TIPS (XVIII): FRANCE VS BELARUS & SPAIN VS TUNISIA

These are my picks for tonight´s friendly games. I have to hurry and I won´t be able to explain them as I´d like...

France - Belarus. France -22.5 points (2.00) Pinnacle. Stake 3

After their disappointing loss against Belgium yesterday, where they were outrebounded, France must step up tonight. Parker will see more action and french frontcourt should overpower their rivals. They will face Belarus NT, which have arrived in France without their top Cs (Veremeenko & Parakhouski). They will rely in long-range shots of their backcourt players, specially, PGs Kudryavtsev and naturalized american CG Dante Stiggers.

Andrei Krivonos named this roster for this trip to France: Nikolai Alekseev, George Kondrusiewicz, Korshuk Denis, Alexander Kudryavtsev, Lashkevich Alexey, Nikita Meshcheryakov, Meshcheryakov Yegor, Alexander Pugstovar, Dante Stiggers, Alex Trostinetsky, Pavel Ulyanka & Charikov Sergey. 

Spain - Tunisia. Spain -28.5 points (1.85) Unibet. Stake 3

Spain will be hosting tonight Afrobasket 2011 Champions in Salamanca. After their two first games vs Great Britain and France, Scariolo´s squad will face an easier test against Tunisia. The north-african roster will not count with Salah Mejrim, its best center and player. Without his rebounding and intimidation skills in the paint, Tunisia will have poor weapons to stop both Gasol´s brothers and Ibaka. IMO Spain should smash Tunisia and the spread should be between 35-40 points.
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France 84-64 Belarus & Spain 95-56 Tunisia -0,45 Units

Picks	46
Won	31		67,39%
Lost	14		30,43%
Void	1		2,17%
Stake	172,5
Profit	76,425
Yield	44,30%
Av. Odd	1,928696

BETTING TIPS (XVI) SPAIN VS GREAT BRITAIN

Spain - Great Britain. Great Britain +18.5 (1.97)  Pinnacle Stake 3

Neither Juan Carlos Navarro nor Rudy Fernández will play tonight against Great Britain in Valladolid. Key sidelined players in Spanish backcourt. In addition to these absences, Serge Ibaka joined the team on Saturday so he´s not expected to play many minutes tonight.

Great Britain NT started their preparation for London 2012 Olympics more than three weeks ago. The 'brits' travelled to USA where they played several games against Russia, Lithuania and Nigeria (the last three teams to get a ticket to London). The results were quite disappointing as those teams had been working harder and earlier to get ready for the Olympic Qualifying Tournament played in Venezuela last week. In those games played in Texas, some key players as Rob Archibald or Pops Mensah Bonsu play few minutes or didn´t play at all like Luol Deng.

Great Britain played its first preparation game in Europe, on Saturday, facing France in Orleans. They lost 79-74 after enjoying a 20-point lead (43-25) at half-time. However, France´s NT reaction in the second half changed the game completely and the british team was overpowered in the last quarter. Despite the defeat, the brits were satisfied with their performances as they have gone a few steps forward so they are well on the way to London.

Spain, started working last week in Madrid and they will play their two first friendly games tonight in Valladolid and tomorrow (against France NT) in Madrid. Sergio Scariolo´s team has been working hard in this first stage. Regarding last summers preparation games, I expect all the players having many minutes today in these first friendlies. 

IMO the spread line is quite high and should be closer to 12-14 points if Great Britain´s frontcourt plays at its best stopping both Gasol brothers in the paint. With Fernández out of the game, Luol Deng should be even more important in offense tonight.

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Spain 78 - 74 Great Britain +2,91 Units


Everything went even better than expected as Great Britain played a very serious game in both sides and Spain struggled a little bit in offense (missing both Navarro and Rudy Fernández). 

Picks	40
Won	28		70,00%
Lost	11		27,50%
Void	1		2,50%
Stake	153,5
Profit	77,06
Yield	50,20%
Av. Odd	1,92575

BETTING TIPS (XV): FIBA OLYMPIC QUALIFYING TOURNAMENT: SEMI-FINALS PICKS

These are my picks for the semi-finals. Sorry about the delay. Stay tuned to @TradingBaskets for more Live Betting Picks !

Nigeria - Russia. Russia -8 HT (1.90) Unibet Stake 3

(LIVE BETTING PICK) Nigeria - Russia. Russia -3,5 HT (1.90) Bet365 Stake 5 
(Bet placed at the beginning of the 2ndQ with 26-26 and FTS for Nigeria)

Nigeria - Russia. Russia -13,5 (1.95) Pinnacle Stake 3

Nigeria - Russia. Russia Total Points: Over 81 (1.90) Unibet Stake 3

After upsetting Greece yesterday in a stunning second half, Nigeria faces Russia. By no means, Russia will repeat Greek mistakes and they should smash Nigeria tonight. Too much for them playing back-to-back games vs Lithuania, Greece and Russia.


Coach Blatt will insist on deffensive intensity from the very beginning so I expect quite a comfortable win today. If Nigeria is overpowered before HT, we would have a high scoring game and I think Russia will get lots of easy baskets and we must place that bet.

Lithuania - Dominican Republic. Lithuania -4 HT (1.90) Unibet Stake 4

Lithuania - Dominican Republic. Lithuania -6,5 (1.96) Pinnacle Stake 5

Lithuania played quite a serious game yesterday against Puerto Rico. Neither Barea nor Arroyo were able to lead Puerto Rico´s offense. Lithuanian backcourt´s deffensive performance was really good and that was key  for getting through the semi-finals together with smart ball movement in offense.


Dominican Republic, on the other hand, got an incredible victory against FYR Macedonia after trailing by 20 points (37-17). Caribbean´s streetball came to life at the end of the second half with Francisco García´s stunning performance. They finally got a comfortable win against FYROM, which lacked of energy and had all its frontcourt in foul-troubles since the beginning of the third quarter. Only Bo McCalebb and Ilievski looked as good as last  year but it wasn´t enough against Dominican power.


I expect the same positive lithuanian attitude tonight. They are much more experienced and will cause many problems in deffense to the caribean backcourt. I think, as well, that Jonas Valanciunas will play a great game after his disappointing performance yesterday and will stop Martínez and Horford. 
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15,3 Units Won Today!

Russia and Lithuania qualified for London 2012 Olympics after beating Nigeria and Dominican Republic.



Russia won Nigeria (85-77) but couldn´t give us the FT Hcap Spread as they got relaxed too much in the second half and made a horrible deffensive performance.

Lithuania smashed Dominican Republic (109-83) since the beginning of the 2nd Quarter. Calipari decided to rest his key players in the second half for tomorrow´s big Olympic Qualifying Spot against Nigeria. 

Picks	39
Won	27		69,23%
Lost	11		28,21%
Void	1		2,56%
Stake	150,5
Profit	74,15
Yield	49,27%
Av. Odd	1,924615

BETTING TIPS (XIV): FIBA OLYMPIC QUALIFYING TOURNAMENT: QUARTER FINALS PICKS

Two Victories away from Glory! That´s the distance to London 2012 Olympic Games for the last eight contenders in Venezuela´s Qualifying Tournament. Welcome to the Knock Out Stage!

Russia vs Angola. Russia -10.5 HT (1.90) Unibet Stake 2

Russia vs Angola. Over 143.5 points (1.98) Pinnacle Stake 3

Russia vs Angola. Over 72 points 1st Half (1.90) Unibet Stake 2

Russia faces Angola expecting to win comfortably and trying to close the game before HT. I expect the best Russian defensive pressure stealing many balls and running the court since the very beginning of the game. Russian size and physical strength (though wihout injured Mozgov) will be key against low-sized Angola´s frontcourt. 

Which Angola performance we´ll see? The amazing one vs FYROM or the rubbish show against New Zealand? I think they´ll try to improve their long range shooting and play fast offensive transitions to get "easy" baskets. I think we´ll have a higher score than expected as Russia will break the game soon and Angola won´t be able to deffend properly.

Greece vs Nigeria. Greece -15 (1.97) Pinnacle Stake 4

Greece vs Nigeria. Greece -7.5 HT (1.86) Bet365 Stake 3

LIVEBETTING PICK Greece -3.5 HT (1.83) Bet365 Stake 5

As we predicted on Sunday, the Greek squad, led by  Head Coach Ilias Zouros, have come to Caracas with high confidence after their succesful preparation. Hellas offensive performances have been brilliant against Jordan and Puerto Rico. They are shooting the ball incredibly well from downtown, outrebounding every team and moving the ball to perfection. Olympiakos´Big Three: Vassilis Spanoulis, Papanikolau and Printezis, together with Bouroussis are On Fire. 

Nobody thought this young Nigerian NT would get through the Quarter Finals but Lithuania tanked yesterday and helped them to win and qualify to this KO round. Despite Ayo Bakare´s team improvement they didn´t deserve this big prize, but they got it anyway. Based on the inspiration of Aminu, Skin and Obasohan they will try to be in the game as long as possible. I don´t think that will happen as Greece will start strong and don´t allow them to score any easy hoops. Greece should smash them if they keep on playing as they have done these weeks.

FYR Macedonia vs Dominican Republic Over 152.5 points (1.95) Pinnacle Stake 4

This should be the closest game of the QF series. Both teams will try to make history getting through the semifinals. McCalebb will lead FYROM hopes, one more time, and he should control the tempo of the game. Neither Coronado nor Fortuna will be able to stop him so I expect a fast and open game with a lot of possessions and long-range shots. On the other hand, Dominican Republic´s frontcourt will dominate the paint with Horford & Martínez. Both centers should overpower Macedonian centers in the paint but they will struggle, as well, defending Pero Antic´s open shots. 

The offensive production of some players as Francisco García (who should be stepping up his numbers in this game) & Eulis Báez, in the Dominican side, and Vlado Ilievski and Stojanovski´s brothers, in the Balkan side, would make this game a high-scoring one if they are inspired beyond the arc. IMO, the line will be closer or over to 160 points.

Lithuania - Puerto Rico Under 169 points (2.00) Pinnacle Stake 4

IMO Quite A High Line for a Quarter Final´s K.O. Game.

Both Lithuania and Puerto Rico NT have performed very good offensive games in this Tournament. Specially both frontcourts have been quite dominant and effective, thanks to the excellent direction of PGS Sarunas Jasikevicius and JJ Barea. 

However, both defensive performances have been horrible allowing lots of open shots and easy baskets. Today, in a Do or Die Situation, I Do Think that we´ll see a much better Lithuanian deffensive play. They will be more aggressive and should physically overpower their opponents. It will be a very interesting game to test Jonas Valanciunas´ skills vs experienced Santiago and PJ Ramos while in the backcourt battle, Jasikevicius could slow down the tempo of the game to stop Arroyo&Barea frantic style. 

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+13,27 Units Won Today !

Things happened as we expected except Nigeria´s stunning win against Greece in the second half. I don´t know if I´ll be able to post something for tomorrow´s semifinals. I will try, I swear :) Stay Tuned to @TradingBaskets

Picks	33
Won	22		66,67%
Lost	10		30,30%
Void	1		3,03%
Stake	127,5
Profit	58,85
Yield	46,16%
Av. Odd	1,925758

BETTING TIPS (XII): FIBA OLYMPIC QUALIFYING TOURNAMENT: DAY THREE (LIVE PICKS)

As I told you this morning, I would be placing live bets in twitter during the day. After Angola´s defeat against New Zealand, I have decided to place a couple of bets in Russia vs Dominican Republic game, a few minutes before the tip-off. 


As the winner of this game will face Angola in the QFs, I think that Russia will overpower the messy caribbean team. So I expect a fast game with a lot of transitions and a comfortable win for David Blatt´s squad.
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Russia 84-69 Dominican Republic  +4,7 Units


Russia didn´t play at their best but it was enough to beat Dominican Republic comfortably. Mozgov hurt his ankle at the beginning of the game and it could be a serious injury for Big russian C. However Russian problems came at the backcourt as they need to improve their long-range shooting percentage.



Russia vs Dominican Republic. Over 147 points (1.94) Pinnacle Stake 5

Russia vs Dominican Republic. Russia -15 (1.86) Bet365 Stake 4

Picks	25
Won	16		64,00%
Lost	8		32,00%
Void	1		4,00%
Stake	100,5
Profit	45,58
Yield	45,35%
Av. Odd	1,9264

BETTING TIPS (IX) 2012 FIBA OLYMPIC QUALIFYING TOURNAMENT: DAY ONE, SIX PICKS

For the first day of the tournament I won´t write too much as you can find all the important info on these previous posts. If I find more interesting picks tomorrow I will write about them on twitter. So these are my tips:

Russia vs South Korea. Russia -25.5 (1.90) Unibet Stake 2.5

(Value Bet till -27)

Russia vs South Korea. Russia -13.5 HT (1.90) Unibet Stake 2.5

(Value Bet till -14.5)

First game of the tournament in Caracas. The strongest team against the weakest team. Russia should trash Korea. It´s the best game for David Blatt´s roster to begin and get used to the "Poliedro´s" conditions.

Greece vs Jordan. Greece -15.5 HT (1.90) Unibet Stake 2

(Value Bet till -16)

Again a lot of differences between these two teams. I have chosen the HT handicap because the greeks have played quite aggresively in the first two quarters of every preparatory games. The FT handicap is a bit dangerous to me, as Greece could start thinking in their game against Puerto Rico and relax a little bit.

Angola vs FYR Of Macedonia. FYR Of Macedonia -7,5 (1.94) Pinnacle Stake 1.5

(Value Bet till -8.5)

Angola vs FYR Of Macedonia. Under 148 points (1.94) Pinnacle Stake 1.5

(Value bet Under 147 points)

It should be the most difficult game of the day. Angola will fight and try to slow the tempo to stop Bo McCalebb´s production. FYROM should take advantage of their big men in the paint and if Angola is not inspired beyond the arc they will struggle in offense.

Venezuela vs Nigeria. Venezuela -10 (1.97) Pinnacle Stake 3
(Value Bet till -12)


Venezuela could feel the pressure in the first game but I think they are quite ready for this clash. They will give their best to get their first win and they should win comfortably if Vásquez imposes his rhythm and they control the boards.

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+0,3 Units after a disappointing day. 

Nobody expected Angola´s massive performance in the first half. Macedonia woke up too late and they couldn´t even win the game. Venezuela, on the other hand, didn´t play as they had been doing the last weeks. Neither Romero nor Torres were able to help Vásquez in the offensive field. Missing many open shots and not controlling the tempo...

Picks	16
Won	11		68,75%
Lost	5		31,25%
Void	0		0,00%
Stake	50,5
Profit	22,6
Yield	44,75%
Av. Odd	1,91875

Betting Tips (VIII) : Brazil vs Greece and New Zealand vs Nigeria

Brazil and Greece will clash tonight in Sao Carlos to determine the winner of Torneio Eletrobras. Both NTs have won comfortably their two games against two weak rivals as New Zealand and Nigeria. This game must be a valuable test for both head coaches.

Hellas NT, will start playing the Olympic Qualifying Tournament in Venezuela  on Monday. They will be fighting for one of the last three tickets to London.  The Greek squad, led by HC Zouros, has completed a perfect preparation. After beating  Lithuania and FYROM in the Baltic country they have displayed all their offensive power in Brazil trashing New Zealand and Nigeria.

The Greek block is practically the same that made a great performance at Lithuania 2011 Eurobasket, without Dimitris Diamantidis. Despite the absence of the great PG, the Greeks played as a solid team based on serious defensive commitment and exploiting the quality of experienced players as Fotsis, Zisis and Bouroussis.

Tonight, Greece will face a Brazilian NT team that still has four weeks to work hard before the Olympics. Head Coach Ruben Magnano  has started working this week with the final block that will go to London. Despite not playing yet with Leandrinho Barbosa and Tiago Splitter, they have made  very interesting offensive performances.  

Magnano´s teams are always built from deffense to offense.  The power of Anderson Varejao and Nene in the paint should be the best of Brazilian weapons to stop Bouroussis and Vougioukas. In the backcourt we´ll see a nice battle between Huertas and Zisis and youngsters Benite and Papanikolau.  

I expect a low scoring game tonight with both teams working hard on deffense and playing long possessions. Zouros  will try to hide some of his best offensive plays for OQT in Venezuela. IMO the line is too high.

Brazil vs Greece. Under 150.5 points (1.97) Pinnacle Stake 2.5

(Value Bet till -149 points)

New Zealand and Nigeria play today their last friendly game before flying to Venezuela. Both teams have struggled a lot in this Torneio Eletrobras in Brazil. 

Nigeria isn´t playing with key offensive players as Ime Udoka and Michael Umeh. Together with these major absences, Derrick Obasohan has been sidelined in this Brazilian tournament. So, only Diogu is the only reliable attacking option for Coach Ayo Bakare.

On the other hand, The Tall Blacks, are missing as well Kirk Penney and Tom Abercrombie. Without these two key ballers, New Zealand NT struggle in offense as they can´t replace them.

I think we´ll see quite a physical and ugly game with both teams battling for an important win before OQT.

New Zealand vs Nigeria. Under 154 points (1.98) Pinnacle Stake 2.5
(Value Bet till -152 points)

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Brazil 78-71 Greece (Struggling at the end with a high scoring last Q)
New Zealand 66-74 Nigeria (Quite low scoring tempo and easy pick except last Q)


+4,875 units

Picks	10
Won	8		80,00%
Lost	2		20,00%
Void	0		0,00%
Stake	37,5
Profit	22,3
Yield	59,47%
Av. Odd	1,914

Betting Tips (IV) Centrobasket 2012: Mexico - Virgin Islands

2012 Centrobasket for Men, has started today in Puerto Rico. This tournament will last from Monday to Sunday and host 10 teams. Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic, as usual, are the main candidates to win the tournament as they are working hard for the Olympic Qualifiers, that will be played in Caracas, in the beginning of July.


This evening we have to focus on Mexican National Team. There are lot of hopes in the uprising of mexican basketball after last year´s Panamerican Games held in Guadalajara. Together with that NT success, this season  Pioneros of Quintana Roo (with the spanish Pep Clarós as a Head Coach) have won FIBA América´s club championships. So this is a big chance for Mexican Basketball to become more popular in the country.


Clarós was appointed Mexican Head Coach, a couple of months ago, this is his first Big Championship with the NT, and named the following roster:


PGs & SGs: Pedro Meza, Paul Stoll, Omar Quintero, Orlando Méndez, Víctor Mariscal, Gabriel Girón, Carlos Toussaint.


SFs & PFs: Héctor Hernández, Jesús López, Gustavo Ayón.


Cs: Horacio Llamas, Adrián Zamora.


NBA PF, Gustavo Ayón will be the true Leader of the team. Together with expert players such as Víctor Mariscal, Horacio Llamas and Omar Quintero they will try to qualify for the semifinals despite the absence of the injured Chris Hernández. 


The mexicans will play tonight against US Virgin Islands. Quite a physical team led by PF Cuthbert Victor (talented and experienced ACB & BekoPBL player). If mexican long-range shooters are inspired and Ayón is unstoppable in the paint, Clarós´ roster should win this game comfortably.




Mexico - Virgin Islands. México -6.5 (1.86) Spread. Bet365 Stake 3
(Value Bet till -7 spread)


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Mexico 75-67 Virgin Islands +2.58 units


Horrible offensive performance of Mexican NT missing 19 FTs (23/42 55%) and getting in late troubles after taking control of the game since the beginning. After leading by 15 points, the mexican players started turning the ball and missing lots of easy shots and really struggled at the end with late Virgin Islands´ triples.