BETTING TIPS (XXXIII) LONDON 2012 OLYMPIC BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT (DAY THREE)

These are my tips for tomorrow´s basketball games. I may add some extra live picks tomorrow. Stay Tuned!

Brazil - Russia. Brazil +7 (1,917) Pinnacle. Stake 3

Russia NT have probably become one of the ´trendiest´ teams of the tournament after their first two convincing victories. Of course they have shown all their power mostly based on all-CSKA´s (2011-12) members starting five: Shved (absolutely inspired since signing with T´Wolves), Ponkrashov, Kirilenko, Khryapa and Kaun. A big, physical team with powerful centers as Kaun and Mozgov (coming from the bench) and the tenacious and unrelenting play of Kirilenko-Khryapa couple in the SF/PF positions.

Which teams can cope with all that physical strength? Undoubtedly, Brazil is one of them. They will accept this challenge today and play a tough battle in the paint with Nené, Splitter and Varejao. It will be such an interesting clash against russian centers. For sure, Magnano´s squad will give their best today and they can beat Russia if their backcourt weapons (Huertas, Barbosa, García and Machado) are inspired  beyond the arc.

IMO this spread is quite valuable. I think we´ll see a closer game than expected. We haven´t seen yet the classical offensive russian blackouts and Brazil can stop them. 

Player Performance:


David Andersen. Total Points Scored (Including OT): Over 11 (1,85) Unibet. Stake 3

This line was clearly created on David Andersen´s poor performance against Spain. It´s true that the boomer really struggled from the field (2/11) and committed quite early and stupid fouls on Gasol´s brothers. After that he didn´t have any impact at all in the game and coach Brett Anderson decided to give him a rest for today´s big game against China. 

I think he will step up today and lead his team. IMO the line is too short and Andersen will score 15 points or more. He should overpower either Yi or Wang on offense.
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Russia 75-74 Brazil & David Andersen scored 17 points (15 @ HT) +5,301 Units


What a thriller was the game between Russia and Brazil. Russia won at the buzzer with a stunning three-pointer from Vitaly Fridzon. The game was such a physical battle as expected.


David Andersen exploded on the first half scoring fifteen points leading boomers´offense. 

Picks	90
Won	64		71,11%
Lost	25		27,78%
Void	1		1,11%
Stake	303
Profit	141,825
Yield	46,81%
Av. Odd	1,925989

BETTING TIPS (XXIX) INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY GAMES: MONTENEGRO - BOSNIA

Montenegro - Bosnia and Herzegovina. Montenegro -1 (2,06) Stake 3. Pinnacle

Montenegro and Bosnia will clash this afternoon in Trento. Both teams, together with Italy and Finland, will be playing this friendly tournament till friday looking for Eurobasket 2013 Qualifiers. 

The Balkan team has begun a new age after last year´s failure. They headed for EuroBasket 2011 with high expectations and departed Lithuania having failed to live up to them. HC Dejan Radonjic left the team in October and was replaced by Luka Pavicevic.

Pavicevic, well-known by his great work in Alba Berlin, has bet on a fresher style in offense, trying to move the ball much better than last year. This change was tested last week in their two friendlies against Latvia. Played in Zlatibor, Montenegro trashed twice the baltic team (94-76) & (94-68). He has taken advantage of his new CGS “additions”. Either Taylor Rochestie or Brion Rush (both of them got Montenegrin citizenship this year) will speed up the tempo and add better shooting pct beyond the arc. 

In contrast to those interesting backcourt additions, neither Pekovic nor Vucevic are available for the team in this early stage of preparation. So it´s time for promising Bojan Dubljevic to lead Montenegro´s frontcourt together with Dragicevic and Bjelica. It will also be so interesting to watch talented youngster PG Nikola Ivanovic with the NT.

Bosnia and Herzegovina handed the national team reins to veteran tactician Aleksandar (Axa) Petrovic in February. The 52-year-old Croatian coach, the older brother of the late Drazen Petrovic, replaced Sabit Hadzic at the helm. 

Named 2010-11 Eurocup Coach of the Year with Cedevita Zagreb, Axa Petrovic will try to impose its run&gun offense with Bosnia NT. He made a big revolution in his roster not naming such experienced players as Bajramovic, Varda, Jazvin, Ikonic, Nesovic, Milosevic, Vasiljevic or Domercant.

Zack Wright (188-G-85), Josip Naletilic (195-G-89), Nihad Djedovic (196-F-90), Nemanja Mitrovic (195-G), Ante Masic (200-F-85), Dalibor Persic (193-G-85), Mirza Teletovic (206-F-85), Edin Bavcic (210-F/C-84), Elmedin Kikanovic (211-C-88), Nedzad Sinanovic (221-C-83), Jozo Brkic (211-F/C-86) and Armin Avdibegovic (188-PG-84) are the men that will represent Bosnia this summer.

Undoubtedly, Mirza Teletovic will be the go-to player, helped by Djedovic and Wright. The american CG who gained bosnian citizenship this year (recently signed by BC Spartak Saint Petersbourg), will make his debut with Bosnia NT and play a lot of minutes as PG Nemanja Gordic is sidelined. Sinanovic and Kikanovic will lead the frontcourt.

IMO, Montenegro has a deeper and more talented roster and should take the advantage of having  already played a couple of games to snatch a victory today.
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Montenegro 81-83 Bosnia -3 Units


Montenegro lost the game due to a horrible last quarter after enjoying a 11 point lead.

Picks	77
Won	53		68,83%
Lost	23		29,87%
Void	1		1,30%
Stake	267
Profit	120,4
Yield	45,09%
Av. Odd	1,928052

BETTING TIPS (XXVIII): LONDON 2012 OLYMPIC BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT (DAY ONE)

These are my first picks for London 2012 Olympic Basketball Tournament. Stay Tuned !

Spain - China. Spain Total Points Over 85,5 (1,90) Unibet. Stake 2,5

Spain - China. Spain -19,5 (1,90) Unibet. Stake 2,5

Spain should win quite comfortably this game. It´s true that the first match in these competitions is weird and difficult but Scariolo´s squad should beat quite easily this chinese team. China is still missing Yao Ming and they just rely on their starting five (Wei-Yue-Wang-Yi Jianlian-Zhizhi Wang). IMO we´ll watch a fast game with Spain getting many easy baskets in transition.

Argentina - Lithuania. Under 164 points (1,94) Pinnacle. Stake 2,5

First game of the tournament for both teams that will clash after their big game on Turkey´s Worldcup semifinals. It´s true that none of them had shown good deffensive attitude in their roads to London. However I think it will be quite different in this game and I expect a lower scoring line than this. Lithuanian backcourt had been struggling beyond the arc and they will have to beat tough customers such as Ginobili, Delfino or Nocioni. In the paint it will be quite interesting to watch youngster Valanciunas facing lots of veterans as Scola, Gutiérrez or Leiva. We should watch a very physical game and the line should be around 158.

STAT BETS (Day One)

Nigeria - Tunisia: Al-Farouq Aminu Over 13,5 Points (1,85) Unibet. Stake 1

The young NBA SF-PF was one of the leaders of Nigeria NT, together with Ike Diogu, in Venezuela´s Olympic Qualifier. If he´s inspired he shouldn´t have any problems with tunisian deffenders. IMO the line should be around 16-17 points.

Brazil - Australia: Patty Mills Over 13,5 Points (1,85) Unibet. Stake 1

Mills have really felt the ball in Australia´s prep games. With excellent pct beyond the arc he will face Huertas and I think he´ll beat this scoring line.

Russia- Great Britain: Shved Over 10 Points (1,85) Unibet. Stake 1,5

Alexey Shved should destroy british PGS with his intense deffensive pressure and stealing skills. Probably without Mike Lenzley, either Nate Reinking or Andrew Lawrence won´t be able to stop him in open field so I expect many transitions and easy lay ups for the russian CG.

Spain - China: Marc Gasol        Under 14 points (1,85) Unibet. Stake 2

Spain - China: Juan C. Navarro Under 16 points (1,85) Unibet Stake 1


Marc Gasol has been sitting out with a shoulder injury for the last 10 days so if he finally plays against China he will see limited action. I think it´s the most valuable stat bet of the day.


Juan Carlos Navarro has been playing few minutes because of nagging foot and back injuries. I don´t think Coach Scariolo will risk at all so he won´t be playing more than 15-18 minutes.
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+0,925 Units Won.
Bitersweet day. The stat bets outcome was brilliant, though Aminu played such a bad game. Spain didn´t deffend well and a bad third quarter made impossible to win the spread bet against China. Lithuania was a total disaster and was trashed by Argentina since the very beginning. Frantic pace and crazy score.

Picks	77
Won	53		68,83%
Lost	23		29,87%
Void	1		1,30%
Stake	267
Profit	120,4
Yield	45,09%
Av. Odd	1,928052

BETTING TIPS (XXVI) BELGIUM - GREAT BRITAIN

Belgium and Great Britain will clash this afternoon in Kortrijk. The British played yesterday in Belgium against Tunisia (losing 73-69) without Deng, Freeland and Lenzley. Neither Freeland nor Lenzley will play today as they got back to England to recover from their injuries. Deng is expected to play but he might see limited action as the british are quite worried about injuries as Daniel Clark picked up an ankle injury yesterday against Tunisia. So in these conditions, with all these sidelined players and the third game in four days, I think Great Britain won´t give their best today.


Belgium, on the other hand, is working for the Eurobasket 2013 qualifiers that will be starting in three weeks. The Belgian Lions managed to defeat France, Belarus and Tunisia last week by playing hard deffense. Led by PG Sam Van Rossom, they feel quite comfortable slowing down the pace.

Belgium - Great Britain. Belgium ML (2,22) Pinnacle. Stake 3 
Belgium - Great Britain. Under 144 points (1.93) Pinnacle. Stake 3
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Belgium 79-56 Great Britain & Argentina 81-86 USA (Check Our Twitter) +8,41 Units


Everything happened as expected. Chris Finch didn´t take anymore risks and decided to give a rest to some key players together with the major sidelines they had before the game. The Belgian Lions led the game since the beginning and got such a comfortable low-scoring win.

Picks	64
Won	44		68,75%
Lost	19		29,69%
Void	1		1,56%
Stake	234
Profit	108,405
Yield	46,33%
Av. Odd	1,93625

BETTING TIPS (XXIV) SPAIN VS ARGENTINA

Spain - Argentina. Under 156 points (1.96) Pinnacle. Stake 2.5
Spain - Argentina. Spain -7 (1.90) Pinnacle. Stake 2

Spain  and Argentina will be clashing in La Coruña in one hour. This is the first game in Europe for Argentina after arriving a couple of days ago and they will face USA Team in Barcelona on Sunday. Tough tests for Julio Lamas´squad after its good preparation in South America. Carlos Delfino will play his first game this summer with Argentina NT as he joined the team three days ago. Luis Scola is also expected to play tonight, but we´ll see if he´s fully fit after suffering a minor knee injury last week, against Brazil.

Neither Marc Gasol nor Sergio Rodríguez will play with Spain as they are recovering from  minor injuries. As it happenned against Australia, I expect both Serge Ibaka and Reyes playing more minutes, meaning more physical intensity in Spanish frontcourt. Spain must improve their deffensive performance and overpower their opponents in the paint. The big questions will take place on Spanish backcourt...Will Rudy and Navarro be able to stop Ginóbili and Nocioni? 

Taking for granted that both teams will give their best I expect a lower scoring line and Spain should step up tonight in both fields to win this game more comfortably than expected. 
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Spain 105-85 Argentina -0,7 Units


Crazy game since the beginning. Spain smashed Argentina in a stunning first half (61-36) and the game was completely broken. Poor deffensive effort in both sides so this game can´t be taken as a serious test regarding next week´s Olympic Games.

Picks	57
Won	39		68,42%
Lost	17		29,82%
Void	1		1,75%
Stake	211
Profit	96,695
Yield	45,83%
Av. Odd	1,933509

BETTING TIPS (XXII) AEROSVIT CUP 2012 & U20 EUROPEAN MEN CHAMPIONSHIP

This is my first pick for the second day of Aerosvit Cup played in Ukraine. Israel will play Romania in Yuzhni trying to give minutes to all their players, still waiting Halerpin, Casspi and Eliyahu to join the team. With a lot of experienced bakcourt players in FIBA Basketball (Pnini, Limonad, Nissim, Naimy, Mekel together with Alex Tyus), the israelis will try to play fast and find their shooters. 


Romania, on the other hand, should step up after their last horrible offensive performance against Ukraine. The romanian were overpowered by a young ukrainian team yesterday and I think they will improve their stats led by Vlad Moldoveanu.


IMO the line should be around 147-148 points.

Israel - Romania. Over 144.5 points (1.98) Pinnacle. Stake 3
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Israel 76-65 Romania -3 units.


Sloppy offensive performance by Israel NT. Missing too many open shots and slowing down the pace in the second half. However it was close ;)

(LIVE BETTING PICKS) Italy - Latvia. Italy +18,5 (2.00) Unibet Stake 5 
(Bet placed at the beginning of the 3rdQ with 40-62 and Latvian ball)


(LIVE BETTING PICKS) Italy - Latvia. Italy +22,5 (2.00) Unibet Stake 5 
(Bet placed in the middle of the 3rdQ with 42-66)
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Italy 78-94 Latvia +10 Units



Great Profit with these Live Betting Picks. Italy woke up in the last quarter, making up the score and reducing the deficit to 11 points, though they finally lost by 16. 
Stay Tuned to Twitter for My Live Betting Picks !

Picks	52
Won	36		69,23%
Lost	15		28,85%
Void	1		1,92%
Stake	196,5
Profit	93,745
Yield	47,71%
Av. Odd	1,932692

BETTING TIPS (XXI) SPAIN VS AUSTRALIA

Spain - Australia. Under 154.5 points (1.90) Pinnacle. Stake 3

Spain will be hosting Australia tonight in Granada. The Boomers arrived yesterday in Spain after quite a long journey and will face Spain again tomorrow in Málaga. This is the toughest test for the Aussies after its training camp on the Gold Coast. Brett Brown´s squad should struggle today after their arduous journey and with the high temperatures of Granada, a far cry from the wintery conditions they left behind in Australia.


Marc Gasol won´t be able to play tonight as he´s struggling with an ankle injury. I expect both Ibaka and Reyes playing more minutes and that should mean more physical intensity in Spanish frontcourt.


Regarding last summer´s preparatory games between these two teams I expect a lower scoring line with a  very physical game in the beginning. The hot and stuffy conditions inside the Arena should affect both teams and slow down the pace.
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Spain 75-69 Australia +2,7 Units

Picks	49
Won	34		69,39%
Lost	14		28,57%
Void	1		2,04%
Stake	183,5
Profit	86,745
Yield	47,27%
Av. Odd	1,92898

BETTING PICKS (XX) AEROSVIT CUP 2012: ISRAEL - BELARUS

This is my pick for the first friendly game of Aerosvit Cup played in Ukraine: I have to hurry and I won´t be able to explain it as I´d like...

Israel - Belarus. Under 157.5 points (1.94) Pinnacle. Stake 3

Israel NT will be playing today their first preparation game. Many important sidelined players today as Casspi, Eliyahu and Halperin haven´t travelled to Ukraine. In addition to these absences, Guy Pnini has a minor angle agravation and should play limited time today. So they will rely on naturalized american CG Alex Tyus (who will be making his debut with Israel NT) and PG Yogev Oyahon. 

They will face Belarus NT, which is still without their top Cs (Veremeenko & Parakhouski). They will rely in long-range shots of their backcourt players, specially, PGs Kudryavtsev and naturalized american CG Dante Stiggers.

Andrei Krivonos will have the same roster that played a couple of matches last weekend. Losing both games against France (84-64) and Belgium (79-54): Nikolai Alekseev, George Kondrusiewicz, Korshuk Denis, Alexander Kudryavtsev, Lashkevich Alexey, Nikita Meshcheryakov, Meshcheryakov Yegor, Alexander Pugstovar, Dante Stiggers, Alex Trostinetsky, Pavel Ulyanka & Charikov Sergey. 

IMO the line is too high regarding the early stages of preparation of both teams and so many important sidelined players.
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Israel 72-50 Belarus +2,82 Units

BETTING TIPS (XIX) : USA - BRAZIL

Tonight USA and Brazil will clash in Washington. This game will be the second and the last one in USA for Coach Krzyzewski´s squad. Regarding last Brazilian preparatory games I expect a physical game quite similar to the game they played in Turkey, two years ago. IMO the spread is too high (should be between 20-25 points), comparing both rosters and the experience of brazilian players. Paul, James and Bryant should step up in offense while USA´s frontcourt will struggle against powerful NBA Brazilian centers.

USA - Brazil. Brazil +31.5 (1,96) Pinnacle. Stake 5

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USA 80-69 Brazil +4,8 Units

BETTING TIPS (XVIII): FRANCE VS BELARUS & SPAIN VS TUNISIA

These are my picks for tonight´s friendly games. I have to hurry and I won´t be able to explain them as I´d like...

France - Belarus. France -22.5 points (2.00) Pinnacle. Stake 3

After their disappointing loss against Belgium yesterday, where they were outrebounded, France must step up tonight. Parker will see more action and french frontcourt should overpower their rivals. They will face Belarus NT, which have arrived in France without their top Cs (Veremeenko & Parakhouski). They will rely in long-range shots of their backcourt players, specially, PGs Kudryavtsev and naturalized american CG Dante Stiggers.

Andrei Krivonos named this roster for this trip to France: Nikolai Alekseev, George Kondrusiewicz, Korshuk Denis, Alexander Kudryavtsev, Lashkevich Alexey, Nikita Meshcheryakov, Meshcheryakov Yegor, Alexander Pugstovar, Dante Stiggers, Alex Trostinetsky, Pavel Ulyanka & Charikov Sergey. 

Spain - Tunisia. Spain -28.5 points (1.85) Unibet. Stake 3

Spain will be hosting tonight Afrobasket 2011 Champions in Salamanca. After their two first games vs Great Britain and France, Scariolo´s squad will face an easier test against Tunisia. The north-african roster will not count with Salah Mejrim, its best center and player. Without his rebounding and intimidation skills in the paint, Tunisia will have poor weapons to stop both Gasol´s brothers and Ibaka. IMO Spain should smash Tunisia and the spread should be between 35-40 points.
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France 84-64 Belarus & Spain 95-56 Tunisia -0,45 Units

Picks	46
Won	31		67,39%
Lost	14		30,43%
Void	1		2,17%
Stake	172,5
Profit	76,425
Yield	44,30%
Av. Odd	1,928696

BETTING TIPS (XVII) USA VS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC & BRAZIL VS ARGENTINA

Tonight USA and Dominican Republic will clash in Las Vegas (Nevada). This game will be the first test for Coach Krzyzewski´s squad. Regarding Dominican Republic performance in the Olympic Qualifying Tournament I expect a run&gun game with lots of fast transitions and poor deffense. 

USA - Dominican Republic. Over 174 points (1.97) Pinnacle. Stake 4

Finally (20 minutes to tip off) I have decided to place an extra bet in the game Argentina - Brazil.

Both teams play again after their game in Argentina, four days ago (78-74). I think we´ll see a hard game with Brazil controlling the tempo and overpowering Argentina in the paint. Neither Ginóbili nor Delfino will be playing in Iguazú tonight for Argentina. In addition to Brazilian motivation and frontcourt´s superiority, tonight Houston Rockets have decided to to use the amnesty provision on Luis Scola. I don´t think he´ll be eager to play  at his best tonight. 

Brazil - Argentina.  Brazil -5.5 points  (1.96) Pinnacle. Stake 4
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USA 113-59 Dominican Republic & Brazil 91-76 Argentina -0,16 Units


Sloppy first half in Las Vegas that slew down the game so much. It was so close but it wasn´t enough.

Brazil controlled the game quite comfortably and had no problems to beat Argentina. Great offensive performance by the brazilians.

Picks	44
Won	30		68,18%
Lost	13		29,55%
Void	1		2,27%
Stake	166,5
Profit	76,875
Yield	46,17%
Av. Odd	1,928864