BETTING TIPS (XXXII): LONDON 2012 OLYMPIC BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT (DAY TWO)

These are my picks for tomorrow. Not enough time to explain them properly. Basically, I expect much better deffensive performances and closer games. Stay Tuned for more picks on Twitter !

China - Russia. Under 155 points (1,943) Pinnacle. Stake 2


Australia - Spain. Under 155 points (1,926) Pinnacle. Stake 2


Great Britain - Brazil. Under 157,5 points (1,943) Pinnacle. Stake 2
Great Britain Under 73,5 points (1,90) Unibet. Stake 2


Argentina - France. France +5,5 (1,90) Pinnacle. Stake 2 

(LIVE BETTING PICKS) Lithuania - Nigeria. Nigeria +16,5 (1,90) Bet365 Stake 3 

(Bet placed at the end of the 3rdQ SCORE 56-40)

(LIVE BETTING PICKS) Lithuania - Nigeria. Over 135,5 points (1,90) Bet365 Stake 3 

(Bet placed at the end of the 3rdQ SCORE 56-40)

(LIVE BETTING PICKS) Lithuania - Nigeria. Nigeria +22,5 (1,90) Bet365 Stake 5 

(Bet placed with 6:24 remaining in the 4thQ SCORE 62-41 & TimeOut)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+7,724 Units Won Today !

China 54-73 Russia

Russia worked really hard on deffensive pressure and broke the game since the first quarter. Kirilenko was impressive again on both sides stopping China´s offense.

Australia 70-82 Spain

The boomers really struggled beyond the arc except in the last quarter. Spain improved a lot on deffense and broke the game on the third quarter trashing Australia. 

Great Britain 62-67 Brazil

The horrible offensive first quarter helped us to win both bets quite comfortably. Not a good game at all and GB was close to cause one of the bigger upsets of the tournament.

France 71-64 Argentina

Argentina was overrated after their big win against Lithuania. The baltic team´s attitude on Sunday was so poor and Argentina trashed them. Today, neither Delfino nor Nocioni were effective on offense and France really stepped up to clinch a very important win.

Lithuania 72-53 Nigeria

Kemzura´s squad attitude was so much better than two days ago and really deserved this clear win. They fought hard on deffense since the beginning and Nigeria absolutely disappeared and couldn´t even reduce the margin at the end.    

Picks	88
Won	62		70,45%
Lost	25		28,41%
Void	1		1,14%
Stake	297
Profit	136,524
Yield	45,97%
Av. Odd	1,926955

BETTING TIPS (XXXI): OLYMPIC WOMEN BASKETBALL, DAY TWO

Ten minutes from tip-off I have decided to place a couple of live picks in China vs Croatia clash. IMO the lines were quite low regarding Croatian frantic pace. The adriatic squad always play a run&gun offense, led by veteran SG Sandra Mandir, and they aren´t good deffenders at all. China NT, lifted after their big win against Czech Republic, have very good shooters and I expected a higher scoring game.

Croatia - China. Over 66,5 points First Half (1,96) Pinnacle. Stake 3

Croatia - China. Over 134 points (1,94) Pinnacle. Stake 3

Remember my twitter account where I place live picks, breaking news or my views about FIBA Basketball:
https://twitter.com/TradingBaskets
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Croatia 58-83 China (31-39 HT) +5,7 Units


Everything happened as expected. Explosive offensive start by both teams and Croatia started to struggle in the second quarter as China increased their lead. After HT China smashed the european side moving the ball faster and finding easy shots.

Picks	79
Won	55		69,62%
Lost	23		29,11%
Void	1		1,27%
Stake	273
Profit	126,1
Yield	46,19%
Av. Odd	1,928608

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STAT BETS

Great Britain Women - Canada Women: Jo Leedham Over 13,5 Points (1,90) Unibet. Stake 3

Great Britain will play tonight their most important game of the Olympics against Canada. The british team´s hopes to go through the quarter-finals pend on winning Canada and Brazil. Almost a do-or-die situation for Tom Maher´s squad.

Jo Leedham is the key of the british offense. She really struggled from the field on Saturday against Australia but I´m sure she will step up tonight and lead her teammates. IMO the line is too short, quite influenced on last game´s performance. Her production should be closer to 20 points.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jo Leedham scored 15 points +2,7 Units


Bet won though Leedham didn´t receive the ball so many times as she usually does. Her teammates (specially the PGS) didn´t move the ball well and she had to find quite open threes to increase her production.

Picks	80
Won	56		70,00%
Lost	23		28,75%
Void	1		1,25%
Stake	276
Profit	128,8
Yield	46,67%
Av. Odd	1,92825

BETTING TIPS (XXX) INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY GAMES: AUSTRIA - ISRAEL

After winning Aerosvit Cup in Ukraine last week, Israel NT will play another international tournament in Austria this weekend. They will be facing Austria, Portugal and Germany in Oberwart.


The big news regarding Israel´s NT roster is that Casspi, Eliyahu and Halperin joined the team this week and all of them are expected to play today. Coach Arik Shivek released  Nissim, Rothbart and Kokia for this austrian tournament. Alex Tyus, Guy Pnini and Yogev Oyahon were the true leaders of the team in Aerosvit Cup. I expect quite a fast and offensive style with all their best weapons available.


Germany trashed Austria on Wednesday (40-68) in a friendly match. Austria NT really struggled in offense and they really need to step up for Eurobasket 2013 qualifiers. 


IMO Israel should win quite comfortably today by 20 or more points.


Austria - Israel. Israel -12 (1,97) Stake 5. Pinnacle
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Austria 70-95 Israel +4,85 Units


Israel woke up a bit late after a horrible first quarter (29-18). Since then, they smashed Austria as expected.

Picks 77 Won 53 68,83% Lost 23 29,87% Void 1 1,30% Stake 267 Profit 120,4 Yield 45,09% Av. Odd 1,928052

BETTING TIPS (XXIX) INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY GAMES: MONTENEGRO - BOSNIA

Montenegro - Bosnia and Herzegovina. Montenegro -1 (2,06) Stake 3. Pinnacle

Montenegro and Bosnia will clash this afternoon in Trento. Both teams, together with Italy and Finland, will be playing this friendly tournament till friday looking for Eurobasket 2013 Qualifiers. 

The Balkan team has begun a new age after last year´s failure. They headed for EuroBasket 2011 with high expectations and departed Lithuania having failed to live up to them. HC Dejan Radonjic left the team in October and was replaced by Luka Pavicevic.

Pavicevic, well-known by his great work in Alba Berlin, has bet on a fresher style in offense, trying to move the ball much better than last year. This change was tested last week in their two friendlies against Latvia. Played in Zlatibor, Montenegro trashed twice the baltic team (94-76) & (94-68). He has taken advantage of his new CGS “additions”. Either Taylor Rochestie or Brion Rush (both of them got Montenegrin citizenship this year) will speed up the tempo and add better shooting pct beyond the arc. 

In contrast to those interesting backcourt additions, neither Pekovic nor Vucevic are available for the team in this early stage of preparation. So it´s time for promising Bojan Dubljevic to lead Montenegro´s frontcourt together with Dragicevic and Bjelica. It will also be so interesting to watch talented youngster PG Nikola Ivanovic with the NT.

Bosnia and Herzegovina handed the national team reins to veteran tactician Aleksandar (Axa) Petrovic in February. The 52-year-old Croatian coach, the older brother of the late Drazen Petrovic, replaced Sabit Hadzic at the helm. 

Named 2010-11 Eurocup Coach of the Year with Cedevita Zagreb, Axa Petrovic will try to impose its run&gun offense with Bosnia NT. He made a big revolution in his roster not naming such experienced players as Bajramovic, Varda, Jazvin, Ikonic, Nesovic, Milosevic, Vasiljevic or Domercant.

Zack Wright (188-G-85), Josip Naletilic (195-G-89), Nihad Djedovic (196-F-90), Nemanja Mitrovic (195-G), Ante Masic (200-F-85), Dalibor Persic (193-G-85), Mirza Teletovic (206-F-85), Edin Bavcic (210-F/C-84), Elmedin Kikanovic (211-C-88), Nedzad Sinanovic (221-C-83), Jozo Brkic (211-F/C-86) and Armin Avdibegovic (188-PG-84) are the men that will represent Bosnia this summer.

Undoubtedly, Mirza Teletovic will be the go-to player, helped by Djedovic and Wright. The american CG who gained bosnian citizenship this year (recently signed by BC Spartak Saint Petersbourg), will make his debut with Bosnia NT and play a lot of minutes as PG Nemanja Gordic is sidelined. Sinanovic and Kikanovic will lead the frontcourt.

IMO, Montenegro has a deeper and more talented roster and should take the advantage of having  already played a couple of games to snatch a victory today.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Montenegro 81-83 Bosnia -3 Units


Montenegro lost the game due to a horrible last quarter after enjoying a 11 point lead.

Picks	77
Won	53		68,83%
Lost	23		29,87%
Void	1		1,30%
Stake	267
Profit	120,4
Yield	45,09%
Av. Odd	1,928052

BETTING TIPS (XXVIII): LONDON 2012 OLYMPIC BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT (DAY ONE)

These are my first picks for London 2012 Olympic Basketball Tournament. Stay Tuned !

Spain - China. Spain Total Points Over 85,5 (1,90) Unibet. Stake 2,5

Spain - China. Spain -19,5 (1,90) Unibet. Stake 2,5

Spain should win quite comfortably this game. It´s true that the first match in these competitions is weird and difficult but Scariolo´s squad should beat quite easily this chinese team. China is still missing Yao Ming and they just rely on their starting five (Wei-Yue-Wang-Yi Jianlian-Zhizhi Wang). IMO we´ll watch a fast game with Spain getting many easy baskets in transition.

Argentina - Lithuania. Under 164 points (1,94) Pinnacle. Stake 2,5

First game of the tournament for both teams that will clash after their big game on Turkey´s Worldcup semifinals. It´s true that none of them had shown good deffensive attitude in their roads to London. However I think it will be quite different in this game and I expect a lower scoring line than this. Lithuanian backcourt had been struggling beyond the arc and they will have to beat tough customers such as Ginobili, Delfino or Nocioni. In the paint it will be quite interesting to watch youngster Valanciunas facing lots of veterans as Scola, Gutiérrez or Leiva. We should watch a very physical game and the line should be around 158.

STAT BETS (Day One)

Nigeria - Tunisia: Al-Farouq Aminu Over 13,5 Points (1,85) Unibet. Stake 1

The young NBA SF-PF was one of the leaders of Nigeria NT, together with Ike Diogu, in Venezuela´s Olympic Qualifier. If he´s inspired he shouldn´t have any problems with tunisian deffenders. IMO the line should be around 16-17 points.

Brazil - Australia: Patty Mills Over 13,5 Points (1,85) Unibet. Stake 1

Mills have really felt the ball in Australia´s prep games. With excellent pct beyond the arc he will face Huertas and I think he´ll beat this scoring line.

Russia- Great Britain: Shved Over 10 Points (1,85) Unibet. Stake 1,5

Alexey Shved should destroy british PGS with his intense deffensive pressure and stealing skills. Probably without Mike Lenzley, either Nate Reinking or Andrew Lawrence won´t be able to stop him in open field so I expect many transitions and easy lay ups for the russian CG.

Spain - China: Marc Gasol        Under 14 points (1,85) Unibet. Stake 2

Spain - China: Juan C. Navarro Under 16 points (1,85) Unibet Stake 1


Marc Gasol has been sitting out with a shoulder injury for the last 10 days so if he finally plays against China he will see limited action. I think it´s the most valuable stat bet of the day.


Juan Carlos Navarro has been playing few minutes because of nagging foot and back injuries. I don´t think Coach Scariolo will risk at all so he won´t be playing more than 15-18 minutes.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+0,925 Units Won.
Bitersweet day. The stat bets outcome was brilliant, though Aminu played such a bad game. Spain didn´t deffend well and a bad third quarter made impossible to win the spread bet against China. Lithuania was a total disaster and was trashed by Argentina since the very beginning. Frantic pace and crazy score.

Picks	77
Won	53		68,83%
Lost	23		29,87%
Void	1		1,30%
Stake	267
Profit	120,4
Yield	45,09%
Av. Odd	1,928052

BETTING TIPS (XXVII) INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY GAMES: LITHUANIA - ICELAND

Lithuania will play its last friendly game before the Olympics in front of its passionate fans in Vilnius. After being defeated by Russia on Sunday (101-79), Kemzura´s squad will host Iceland, such a weak opponent. 

I think we´ll see quite a comfortable win for the baltic side before heading to London. Lithuania should trash Iceland and get ready to face Argentina next Sunday.

Iceland's last EuroBasket Division B campaign was in 2009. Flash forward three years and the stakes are now considerably higher for Iceland. Starting 14 August, the national team is not embarking on a campaign to earn promotion, but to secure a place in the 24-team EuroBasket 2013. 

The Division A and B system is now defunct and everyone is given a fair chance of earning a ticket to the big stage. Such a great prize for Iceland NT that will have, once again, Jon Stefansson as the go-to player, just helped by Pavel Ermolinskij and the youngster Haukur Palsson.

Lithuania - Iceland. Lithuania -26,5 (1,83) Bet365. Stake 5

Lithuania - Iceland. Lithuania -14,5 HT (1,83) Bet365. Stake 3 (LIVEBETTING)

Lithuania - Iceland. Lithuania Over 94,5 points (1,86) Bet365. Stake 3 (LIVEBETTING)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lithuania 101-51 Iceland (47-31 HT) +9,22 Units


Lithuania easily cruise past Iceland since the very beginning. However they need to step up their offense and free throws percentage.

Picks	67
Won	47		70,15%
Lost	19		28,36%
Void	1		1,49%
Stake	245
Profit	117,625
Yield	48,01%
Av. Odd	1,93194

BETTING TIPS (XXVI) BELGIUM - GREAT BRITAIN

Belgium and Great Britain will clash this afternoon in Kortrijk. The British played yesterday in Belgium against Tunisia (losing 73-69) without Deng, Freeland and Lenzley. Neither Freeland nor Lenzley will play today as they got back to England to recover from their injuries. Deng is expected to play but he might see limited action as the british are quite worried about injuries as Daniel Clark picked up an ankle injury yesterday against Tunisia. So in these conditions, with all these sidelined players and the third game in four days, I think Great Britain won´t give their best today.


Belgium, on the other hand, is working for the Eurobasket 2013 qualifiers that will be starting in three weeks. The Belgian Lions managed to defeat France, Belarus and Tunisia last week by playing hard deffense. Led by PG Sam Van Rossom, they feel quite comfortable slowing down the pace.

Belgium - Great Britain. Belgium ML (2,22) Pinnacle. Stake 3 
Belgium - Great Britain. Under 144 points (1.93) Pinnacle. Stake 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Belgium 79-56 Great Britain & Argentina 81-86 USA (Check Our Twitter) +8,41 Units


Everything happened as expected. Chris Finch didn´t take anymore risks and decided to give a rest to some key players together with the major sidelines they had before the game. The Belgian Lions led the game since the beginning and got such a comfortable low-scoring win.

Picks	64
Won	44		68,75%
Lost	19		29,69%
Void	1		1,56%
Stake	234
Profit	108,405
Yield	46,33%
Av. Odd	1,93625

BETTING TIPS (XXV) INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLIES: AUSTRALIA WOMEN - BRAZIL WOMEN & FRANCE - BRAZIL

Australia - Brazil. Under 151.5 points (1.97) Pinnacle. Stake 3
Australia - Brazil. Australia -17 (1.95) Pinnacle. Stake 2

Australia and Brazil will clash this afternoon in Villeneuve D´Ascq (France) in a friendly tournament before the Olympics. The Jayco Opals trashed China yesterday (84-53) showing a great deffensive performance. 

Brazil, on the other hand, lost against France (67-57). That poor offensive performance should be changed but it will quite difficult as Brazilian Basketball Federation has confirmed that wing Iziane Castro Marques has been cut from the team for actions off the court.

Castro Marques was cut for taking her boyfriend to sleep in her hotel room for a couple of nights. She apologized for that to the team and management and asked to be take back on the squad. There was no indication the decision will be overturned.

Decision to cut her was made by the manager Hortencia and the coaching staff.

Brazil will continue to play with 11 players, because the only substitutions right now that can be made are for injury reasons.

It’s not the first time Castro Marques has had issues with Brazilian coaching staff – she got in a conflict with coaches during 2008 Olympic Qualification Tournament and was left off the NT for Beijing Olympic games.

With this major absence, Brazil offense is really turned down. We have to remind, as well, that the Jayco Opals aren´t playing with SF Penny Taylor, injured in April so I expect a lower scoring line with Australia dominating the paint with Lauren Jackson and Elizabeth Cambage.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Australia 78-75 Brazil -5 Units


Crappy Deffensive Performance from Australia and both picks lost. The Jayco Opals started as expected (25-9 in 1stQ) but they stop deffending and let Brazilians scoring easy baskets. Lauren Jackson did not play after HT and that was a massive factor for losing both tips as Erika De Souza became unstoppable.

(LIVE BETTING PICKS) France - Brazil. France +5,5 (1,83) Bet365 Stake 5 
(Bet placed at the beginning of the 3rdQ with 41-48 and France´s TO)


(LIVE BETTING PICKS) France - Brazil. France +9,5 (1,83) Bet365 Stake 5 
(Bet placed in the last two minutes of the 3rdQ with 54-65)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
France 78-74 Brazil +8,3 Units


France completed an incredible comeback in the fourth quarter to snatch a 78-74 victory against Brazil in Strasbourg. Lifted up by De Colo & Seraphin in offense & Bokolo stealing some key balls in half-court pressure, the french team managed to defeat Brazil after trailing by eleven points at the end of the third quarter. 


Stay Tuned to Twitter for My Live Betting Picks !

Picks	61
Won	41		67,21%
Lost	19		31,15%
Void	1		1,64%
Stake	226
Profit	99,995
Yield	44,25%
Av. Odd	1,930984

BETTING TIPS (XXIV) SPAIN VS ARGENTINA

Spain - Argentina. Under 156 points (1.96) Pinnacle. Stake 2.5
Spain - Argentina. Spain -7 (1.90) Pinnacle. Stake 2

Spain  and Argentina will be clashing in La Coruña in one hour. This is the first game in Europe for Argentina after arriving a couple of days ago and they will face USA Team in Barcelona on Sunday. Tough tests for Julio Lamas´squad after its good preparation in South America. Carlos Delfino will play his first game this summer with Argentina NT as he joined the team three days ago. Luis Scola is also expected to play tonight, but we´ll see if he´s fully fit after suffering a minor knee injury last week, against Brazil.

Neither Marc Gasol nor Sergio Rodríguez will play with Spain as they are recovering from  minor injuries. As it happenned against Australia, I expect both Serge Ibaka and Reyes playing more minutes, meaning more physical intensity in Spanish frontcourt. Spain must improve their deffensive performance and overpower their opponents in the paint. The big questions will take place on Spanish backcourt...Will Rudy and Navarro be able to stop Ginóbili and Nocioni? 

Taking for granted that both teams will give their best I expect a lower scoring line and Spain should step up tonight in both fields to win this game more comfortably than expected. 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Spain 105-85 Argentina -0,7 Units


Crazy game since the beginning. Spain smashed Argentina in a stunning first half (61-36) and the game was completely broken. Poor deffensive effort in both sides so this game can´t be taken as a serious test regarding next week´s Olympic Games.

Picks	57
Won	39		68,42%
Lost	17		29,82%
Void	1		1,75%
Stake	211
Profit	96,695
Yield	45,83%
Av. Odd	1,933509